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LylibelluleContest Results!
Posted by meronpan on January 2, 2009
Fortune Arterial cg
Sorry for the delay, but hopefully you were also bringing in the new year and didn’t mind :P
In the end, there were 23 participants battling for miku. All they had to do was guess how many volumes of (Japanese language) manga I had at the end of the year!
First the answers!
Japanese manga: 426
Light novels: 29
English manga: 57
Turns out only one person got within 10 for the first question, so the tie breakers weren’t necessary. That person was… nanu! omedetou gozaimasu! Currently getting in contact to finalize the shipment, but barring any unforeseen complications, we have our winner ^_^
| Correct Answers | 426 | manga | 29 | light novels | 57 | eigo manga | 23 | entrants | |
| manga | dif | light novel | dif | eigo manga | dif | sum of squares | mse | rmse | |
| eetaku | 120 | 306 | 20 | 9 | 40 | 17 | 94006 | 31335 | 177 |
| seija | 200 | 226 | 40 | -11 | 45 | 12 | 51341 | 17114 | 131 |
| fumika | 250 | 176 | 50 | -21 | 50 | 7 | 31466 | 10489 | 102 |
| jchow | 263 | 163 | 25 | 4 | 83 | -26 | 27261 | 9087 | 95 |
| litokid | 265 | 161 | 33 | -4 | 18 | 39 | 27458 | 9153 | 96 |
| GNdynames | 290 | 136 | 25 | 4 | 20 | 37 | 19881 | 6627 | 81 |
| xiani | 292 | 134 | 27 | 2 | 33 | 24 | 18536 | 6179 | 79 |
| pus2meong | 293 | 133 | 28 | 1 | 34 | 23 | 18219 | 6073 | 78 |
| persocom | 306 | 120 | 27 | 2 | 35 | 22 | 14888 | 4963 | 70 |
| kira | 307 | 119 | 29 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 15925 | 5308 | 73 |
| tachikaze | 315 | 111 | 40 | -11 | 19 | 38 | 13886 | 4629 | 68 |
| memoriesoffaddict | 330 | 96 | 35 | -6 | 50 | 7 | 9301 | 3100 | 56 |
| akari | 352 | 74 | 48 | -19 | 23 | 34 | 6993 | 2331 | 48 |
| heat horn | 360 | 66 | 36 | -7 | 18 | 39 | 5926 | 1975 | 44 |
| phossil | 375 | 51 | 30 | -1 | 14 | 43 | 4451 | 1484 | 39 |
| lovely duckie | 375 | 51 | 65 | -36 | 8 | 49 | 6298 | 2099 | 46 |
| naijica | 391 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 2782 | 927 | 30 |
| orange | 395 | 31 | 32 | -3 | 8 | 49 | 3371 | 1124 | 34 |
| monkee | 396 | 30 | 51 | -22 | 23 | 34 | 2540 | 847 | 29 |
| burfordus | 400 | 26 | 60 | -31 | 200 | -143 | 22086 | 7362 | 86 |
| nanu | 430 | -4 | 37 | -8 | 9 | 48 | 2384 | 795 | 28 |
| Syranide | 455 | -29 | 21 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 2426 | 809 | 28 |
| blowfish | 462 | -36 | 16 | 13 | 33 | 24 | 2041 | 680 | 26 |
For an easier to digest diagram:
Guesses in blue, red line is the correct value. Despite no additions for the duration of the contest, turned out almost everyone guessed too low ^^;;
More random stats for my amusement… kira got the light novels number exactly. Fumika and memoriesofaddict got the closest for the second tie breaker, both 7 off from the correct value. Unfortunately there were no runner up prizes this time, gomen! ^^;;
Hopefully I’ll be able to do another contest sometime… at the very least something annual but preferrably sooner. No guarantees though :P
cosplay kissa staff ~ nogizaka haruka no himitsu
Thanks again to everyone for stopping by, it’s been great to get into this hobby with such a supportive community ^_^
xJAYMANx said
@Meronpan: Hmm, what is the probability that you got more enjoyment from crunching the stats than Nanu from winning? I’d say 100%, lol. ^o^
optic said
Congratz nanu. Ur gonna love her to bits. xD
Another one so soon meronpan? I wonder what figure could it be. xD
rangerroh said
Congrats! nanu
Persocom said
nice status report on the contestants XD Grats nanu ^^ Thanks for having a contest, maybe I’ll do one some day myself.
jchow said
Damit… Total throw off right here –>”Now I’m sitting on over 250 volumes, unfortunately a large part of which I haven’t read yet ^^;;.?”
Should update about me section ¬¬
Kira said
Well that was fun congratulations guys!!! Thank you for running the contest!!!
nanu said
@xJAYMANx: I agree; I am amazed to see arithmetic working, if the basis for my guess was/is true ^^;
Thanks again, meronpan.
This was a fun contest for all participants, since timeliness mattered not too much.
Thanks, everyone.
GNdynames said
@JChow: same deal with me ^^;
Not exactly disappointed, but I do need to ponder on whether or not I should buy my own >.<
Fumika said
Wow… thanks for the contest.
But I was WAAAAY offf…. I underestimated your otaku powers.
Blowfish said
This was fun! i really wondered why so many people chose low numbers?
Congrats to Nanu!
phossil said
Ohh I was so close!! It was fun!!
Congrats Nanu *seeing with a envy look* Lol
Q said
Wow 400+ ?? That’s a lot! Now I wonder how you store them :o
And of course congrats to nanu!
Orange said
Congratulations Nanu! That was a fun contest. =]
Litokid said
…And here I was thinking that the others guessed too high. ^^; Will not underestimate people again.
lovelyduckie said
I could’ve done worse :)
Rin said
That is a lot of manga…WOW…
I have a lot of english mangas but not that much compared to your Jpaanese manga…just wow…
Fumika said
Where’s that picture in your post from? It reminds me of Fortune Arterial somewhat.
meronpan said
@xjaymanx what do you expect from a math major with an emphasis in stats? :P
@optic err, i *want* to have another one soon, but that largely depends on when/if i acquire some extra goodies ^^;; i do have a hearts grow sora cd and some extra volumes of manga layout around though…
@persocom my pleasure, i always find it enjoyable to give things away ^_^
@jchow well, there were plenty of pictures around the site that woulda suggested that the number was dated :P but i do admit, i should not only update that number, but the whole about section(s) ^^;;;
@kira no problem, just wanted to add some holiday cheer ^^
@nanu my goal was to run something where everyone around the globe had an equal chance… danny’s giveaways were sometimes slightly unfair because people who saw the post first got a head start and i wanted to eliminate that somehow. i’ve got miku boxed up and hopefully will be mailing her off tomorrow, so she should arrive this week!
@gndynames she’s got an average price for a pvc… i say definitely worth it if you’re a miku fan ^_^
@fumika yeah, your guess would’ve been accurate around the time i started the blog ^^; if you’re referring to the top pic, it reminds you of fortune arterial because… it is from fortune arterial ^^; The bottom pic is from nogisaka haruka no himitsu… hmm i should edit in the sources…
@blowfish i think maybe it was because there were some low guesses to start and others didn’t want to dig around for pics and count themselves? so perhaps they just based their answers on previous entries? i admit i didn’t make it easy by linking pics :P
@phossil very close ^^; better luck next time!
@q on the dvd shelves you see in my pics from time to time ^_^ although… they’re full now and i don’t have additional storage yet orz
@orange glad you enjoyed it, and as i mentioned, hopefully another will follow sometime this year ^^
@litokid if my buying habits didn’t explode since may, they would’ve been a lot closer ^^;; i was actually surprised by the number too
@lovelyduckie you were pretty close :P or if you’re referring to how your collection completely blows mine out of the water… yes, totally ^_^
@rin as mentioned above, you should see lovelyduckie’s collection ^^; i think she was over… 800…900 volumes? i also haven’t read a lot of my collection… when konata was talking about why she was buying even though she hadn’t finished her current stuff… i was like, ‘yes, totally! wakaru wakaru!’ ^^;